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News & Politics News & Politics

What Are the Chances for Republicans?

Posted by on Nov. 29, 2011 at 6:50 PM
  • 27 Replies

What Are the Chances for Republicans?

How would the strength of the economy next year affect each candidate’s chances of defeating President Barack Obama? Nate Silver models the likelihood of each candidate winning the popular vote based on 2012 G.D.P. growth, President Obama’s current approval rating and the ideology of the candidate. Use the slider to see how changes in G.D.P. affect the model. Related Article »
Chance of Republican candidate winning the popular vote based on G.D.P. growth of: Huntsman

Huntsman

Romney

Romney

Cain

Cain

Perry

Perry

Bachmann

Bachmann

2.5% growth

71%
58%
41%
30%
12%

Some Possible Scenarios

Stalled Economy

0% G.D.P. growth

90%
83%
70%
59%
34%

Sluggish Economy

2.3% G.D.P. growth

73%
60%
44%
32%
14%

Improving Economy

4% G.D.P. growth

55%
40%
25%
17%
5%

Details of thisAdvanced Options

43%

Obama’s approval rating averaged about 43% in polls conducted in late October. But what if it were a little higher or little lower? See how changes to it affects the model.

Rather than assuming we know exactly what GDP will be next year, this treats the value you pick as a forecast which could turn out to be too high or too low. This will introduce more uncertainty into the presidential race forecast, but is a more realistic assumption since GDP growth is hard to predict exactly.

Hmmm.  Thoughts?

by on Nov. 29, 2011 at 6:50 PM
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Replies (1-10):
jewjewbee
by on Nov. 30, 2011 at 8:11 AM

With a 43% approval rating, lower than any other incumbent (per Fox last night) I don't think Obama has much of a chance. so.....that pretty much leaves who ever running against him with a win.

Peanutx3
by Silver Member on Nov. 30, 2011 at 11:53 AM

I do hope so, however I did see a poll not too long ago that had Obama leading Newt by double digits in spite of Obama's poor approval rating. 

HeartCharmMama
by on Nov. 30, 2011 at 1:20 PM
1 mom liked this

Not if Diddy, Jay-Z and Russell Simmons have anything to do with it. That's the part that scares me. He was somehow able to get elected by the gullible (e.g. me--never make the same mistake twice) so anything is possible, especially if it's backed by a $1B+ campaign.

Quoting jewjewbee:

With a 43% approval rating, lower than any other incumbent (per Fox last night) I don't think Obama has much of a chance. so.....that pretty much leaves who ever running against him with a win.


jewjewbee
by on Nov. 30, 2011 at 2:08 PM

 

Quoting Peanutx3:

I do hope so, however I did see a poll not too long ago that had Obama leading Newt by double digits in spite of Obama's poor approval rating. 


I dont know about that. The one I saw at lunch today showed Newt above Obama by like 4 points and everyone in the cafe clapped.

http://race42012.com/2011/11/30/44317/

Peanutx3
by Silver Member on Nov. 30, 2011 at 2:09 PM


Quoting jewjewbee:


Quoting Peanutx3:

I do hope so, however I did see a poll not too long ago that had Obama leading Newt by double digits in spite of Obama's poor approval rating. 


I dont know about that. The one I saw at lunch today showed Newt above Obama by like 4 points and everyone in the cafe clapped.

Well I truly hope Obama is not reelected I just really don't like our chances with the likes of Newt or Romney.

Mommy_of_Riley
by Just Jess on Nov. 30, 2011 at 3:35 PM
1 mom liked this
I think they have a better chance than many Democrats want to admit...
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Partyof5tlc
by on Nov. 30, 2011 at 4:12 PM
1 mom liked this

 I have a thought, where is Ron Paul?  Your post is BS!

Peanutx3
by Silver Member on Nov. 30, 2011 at 4:19 PM

How about you take it up with the source?  they also left out Newt.  Good grief. 

Quoting Partyof5tlc:

 I have a thought, where is Ron Paul?  Your post is BS!


asfriend
by on Nov. 30, 2011 at 4:28 PM


Quoting Partyof5tlc:

 I have a thought, where is Ron Paul?  Your post is BS!


Ron Paul is not a serious candidate.

Mommy_of_Riley
by Just Jess on Nov. 30, 2011 at 8:32 PM
According to you?

Quoting asfriend:



Quoting Partyof5tlc:


 I have a thought, where is Ron Paul?  Your post is BS!



Ron Paul is not a serious candidate.

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