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So today i was on youtube and i found some stuff thats very scary

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OBama is not the man you voted for. he is a lying bastard from kenya 

by on Apr. 11, 2012 at 8:38 PM
Replies (161-170):
jcribb16
by Primrose Foxglove on Apr. 13, 2012 at 11:13 PM

I do hope you hear soon about the disability.

Wow - that book would have stuck with me, too!  No wonder you would be worried.  I'm glad it was fiction.

I'm not quite sure what you meant about DD - is she okay?

Quoting Friday:


Quoting jcribb16:

I still have a hard time with my mom gone, and it's been 5 years already.  Time flies, but it still seems so recent to me.  I remember the first year was horrendous and I feel for you.

I don't have a hearing date yet, either.  They've only had the case for about 3 weeks - so I guess it's going to be another wait.  That's better for me to handle, though, knowing they are working on it and know what they are doing and what everything means.

I don't like the idea of hospitals and surgery either.  I sincerely hope things will work out for the best, for you, with your thyroid issue, whether through the surgery or with meds.



Thanks. I guess I'm expecting too much of myself so soon. Mom was a tough, no nonsense kind of lady and sometimes I hear her telling me to dust myself off and move on. I don't want to disappoint her but I'm just not that tough. My bff who was like a little sister died in 1999 and I still miss her sometimes but not as much.

They seem to take forever, it's been over a month since I got a letter acknowledging my request for a hearing so I hope not much longer. At least dh is working now.

It's stupid but I read a book years ago about a woman who needed brain surgery, the surgeon slipped and she was changed for life. It was fiction but stuck with me. It's just the thought of someone cutting on me while I'm out cold. It's better than cancer tho, which it'll probably end up as eventually. I'm already on the meds, it stopped working during my last pregnancy. Been enlarged for many years but every blood test came back fine. Last pregnancy it just stopped and my blood pressure went up. DD has put me thru a lot physically and emotionally to be here but I have my baby girl so it's cool. Nothing fatal yet ; ).


Friday
by Platinum Member on Apr. 13, 2012 at 11:20 PM


Quoting jcribb16:

I do hope you hear soon about the disability.

Wow - that book would have stuck with me, too!  No wonder you would be worried.  I'm glad it was fiction.

I'm not quite sure what you meant about DD - is she okay?

Quoting Friday:


Quoting jcribb16:

I still have a hard time with my mom gone, and it's been 5 years already.  Time flies, but it still seems so recent to me.  I remember the first year was horrendous and I feel for you.

I don't have a hearing date yet, either.  They've only had the case for about 3 weeks - so I guess it's going to be another wait.  That's better for me to handle, though, knowing they are working on it and know what they are doing and what everything means.

I don't like the idea of hospitals and surgery either.  I sincerely hope things will work out for the best, for you, with your thyroid issue, whether through the surgery or with meds.



Thanks. I guess I'm expecting too much of myself so soon. Mom was a tough, no nonsense kind of lady and sometimes I hear her telling me to dust myself off and move on. I don't want to disappoint her but I'm just not that tough. My bff who was like a little sister died in 1999 and I still miss her sometimes but not as much.

They seem to take forever, it's been over a month since I got a letter acknowledging my request for a hearing so I hope not much longer. At least dh is working now.

It's stupid but I read a book years ago about a woman who needed brain surgery, the surgeon slipped and she was changed for life. It was fiction but stuck with me. It's just the thought of someone cutting on me while I'm out cold. It's better than cancer tho, which it'll probably end up as eventually. I'm already on the meds, it stopped working during my last pregnancy. Been enlarged for many years but every blood test came back fine. Last pregnancy it just stopped and my blood pressure went up. DD has put me thru a lot physically and emotionally to be here but I have my baby girl so it's cool. Nothing fatal yet ; ).


DD was a difficult pregnancy, I was 37, she was breech and flipped all over. My thyroid broke and my blood pressure went up. Had a c section and she is healthy but possibly mild autism.

I was nursing my middle one, he was 18 months, and on the mini pill. Decided to get a tubal, went for the bloodwork and had to cancel because I was pregnant. Always wanted a little girl but due to my age, physical problems and finances had decided to be happy with my 2 boys. Katie just wanted to be here and I had little choice. 

My mom was divorced and broke when I was a kid and she LOVED to spoil her Katie like she wasn't able to spoil me.

Sorry, getting all emotional again.


Carpy
by Platinum Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 7:58 AM


Quoting Friday:


Quoting Carpy:

I feel the same way about my dad and it has been 9 yrs and my mom feels the same about her parents and it has been 55 yrs.


That blows. I guess it's just one of those things we all have to deal with. Life can be a real whore, ya know.

Yes it does and the way my dad always put it, it is much better for a child to bury a parent, because that is how it is supposed to be, rather than a parent suffer lifelong for having to bury a child.

rachelrothchild
by on Apr. 14, 2012 at 1:24 PM

I recommend watching The Obama Deception.

Clairwil
by Platinum Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 4:20 PM
Quoting pj2becca21:

So today i was on youtube and i found some stuff thats very scary

Obama is not the man you voted for. he is a lying bastard from kenya 

I think you are an intelligent young woman, so I'm going to pay you the respect of asking you a serious and quite difficult question.  I hope you'll give it some thought, and respond with a serious answer.

I'm going to assume that you are familiar with Bayes' Theorem:

P(A|B) = \frac{P(B | A)\, P(A)}{P(B)}

If you've not come across it, spend a few minutes reading through:

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem


One of the implications of Bayes' Theorem is the way that humans interact with new evidence.

If you give a particular piece of evidence in favour of a proposition to a person who already thinks that proposition is fairly likely to be true, they'll update their estimate by increasing how likely they think it is to be true.

If you give the same evidence to someone who thinks the proposition is highly unlikely, they will also increase their estimate, but their new estimate will still be much lower than that of the first person.


This means that the initial information set a child starts off with is fairly important.  If you have no reliable guide outside of yourself, you can keep finding out more and more facts, and yet still end up very deceived, because with a sufficiently distorted start you'll undervalue the evidence that should have been correcting your initial view.

This is one of the reasons why a university education is so powerful.   Because everybody starts off with some 'kinks' in their initial knowledge set, thinking some things are true that just ain't so.  What a high quality university education provides (and I admit not all universities are high quality ones) is an external sounding board that provides balance - that sounds warning sirens and flashes red lights to let a person know that there is a high chance they are off the rails on some particular track of reasoning they've found themselves upon.   That's what the positive gain of doing it at a university is, over reading precisely the same books and journal papers via self-selected study.

Now it is possible to compensate for this during self-study, to force oneself without external motivation to study the full breadth of information that's available on a subject, even the bits which one's prior estimation of probabilities leads one to think will be a waste of time.  But it is very easy to deceive oneself into thinking that one is compensating effectively when in fact one isn't.  Because it is your own intellect (harnessed into providing rationalisations) that is working against you.


Now, here's my question for you:

If a person has ended up in a vicious spiral where because of an initial distorted prior probability estimate they've been led down a false path of reasoning, what methods could they use to get an 'out of the box' view of themselves, to help distinguish between the two possibilities:

1. they are one of the elite few not falling for a confidence trick and it is society that is vastyly incorrect

or

2. they are wrong


It is a tricky question.  Just looking for facts and evidence won't help distinguish much, because their brains are now loaded via Bayes' Theorem to place far different evaluations upon new data than the rest of society places upon it.  Something others dismiss as obviously false, they will see as highly significant.

Similarly, if they look for others who share their views they will find them.  There are 7 billion people on this planet.  Whatever the view, however false, you can find people on YouTube and website who support it.   (Doubly so if there is a financial or political interest for some people in supporting it.)

So how can such a person get a reality check?  Once someone is in such a hole, how can they tell they are in a hole at all (as opposed to being isolated by being, for example, on a mountain peak of inspired revelation), let alone escape from it?

pj2becca21
by Bronze Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 5:23 PM


Quoting Clairwil:

Quoting pj2becca21:

So today i was on youtube and i found some stuff thats very scary

Obama is not the man you voted for. he is a lying bastard from kenya 

I think you are an intelligent young woman, so I'm going to pay you the respect of asking you a serious and quite difficult question.  I hope you'll give it some thought, and respond with a serious answer.

I'm going to assume that you are familiar with Bayes' Theorem:

P(A|B) = \frac{P(B | A)\, P(A)}{P(B)}

If you've not come across it, spend a few minutes reading through:

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem


One of the implications of Bayes' Theorem is the way that humans interact with new evidence.

If you give a particular piece of evidence in favour of a proposition to a person who already thinks that proposition is fairly likely to be true, they'll update their estimate by increasing how likely they think it is to be true.

If you give the same evidence to someone who thinks the proposition is highly unlikely, they will also increase their estimate, but their new estimate will still be much lower than that of the first person.


This means that the initial information set a child starts off with is fairly important.  If you have no reliable guide outside of yourself, you can keep finding out more and more facts, and yet still end up very deceived, because with a sufficiently distorted start you'll undervalue the evidence that should have been correcting your initial view.

This is one of the reasons why a university education is so powerful.   Because everybody starts off with some 'kinks' in their initial knowledge set, thinking some things are true that just ain't so.  What a high quality university education provides (and I admit not all universities are high quality ones) is an external sounding board that provides balance - that sounds warning sirens and flashes red lights to let a person know that there is a high chance they are off the rails on some particular track of reasoning they've found themselves upon.   That's what the positive gain of doing it at a university is, over reading precisely the same books and journal papers via self-selected study.

Now it is possible to compensate for this during self-study, to force oneself without external motivation to study the full breadth of information that's available on a subject, even the bits which one's prior estimation of probabilities leads one to think will be a waste of time.  But it is very easy to deceive oneself into thinking that one is compensating effectively when in fact one isn't.  Because it is your own intellect (harnessed into providing rationalisations) that is working against you.


Now, here's my question for you:

If a person has ended up in a vicious spiral where because of an initial distorted prior probability estimate they've been led down a false path of reasoning, what methods could they use to get an 'out of the box' view of themselves, to help distinguish between the two possibilities:

1. they are one of the elite few not falling for a confidence trick and it is society that is vastyly incorrect

or

2. they are wrong


It is a tricky question.  Just looking for facts and evidence won't help distinguish much, because their brains are now loaded via Bayes' Theorem to place far different evaluations upon new data than the rest of society places upon it.  Something others dismiss as obviously false, they will see as highly significant.

Similarly, if they look for others who share their views they will find them.  There are 7 billion people on this planet.  Whatever the view, however false, you can find people on YouTube and website who support it.   (Doubly so if there is a financial or political interest for some people in supporting it.)

So how can such a person get a reality check?  Once someone is in such a hole, how can they tell they are in a hole at all (as opposed to being isolated by being, for example, on a mountain peak of inspired revelation), let alone escape from it?

Well this is very tricky. but with that said come from my opppion i would say 2, on the other head coming from my knowlage of how the human brain works i would say 1, so 1 is my final answer 

how to escape? it very hard and easy at the same time! all you have to do is clear your mind and think about both side. what i'm saying is don't think about what people have told you. and just think about both sides 

Clairwil
by Platinum Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 5:54 PM
Quoting pj2becca21:

Well this is very tricky. but with that said come from my opppion i would say 2, on the other head coming from my knowlage of how the human brain works i would say 1, so 1 is my final answer 

how to escape? it very hard and easy at the same time! all you have to do is clear your mind and think about both side. what i'm saying is don't think about what people have told you. and just think about both sides 

Thank you for taking the time to respond seriously.

Clairwil
by Platinum Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 6:02 PM
Quoting pj2becca21:
Quoting Clairwil:

I think you are an intelligent young woman, so I'm going to pay you the respect of asking you a serious and quite difficult question.  I hope you'll give it some thought, and respond with a serious answer.

I'm going to assume that you are familiar with Bayes' Theorem:

P(A|B) = \frac{P(B | A)\, P(A)}{P(B)}

If you've not come across it, spend a few minutes reading through:

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem


One of the implications of Bayes' Theorem is the way that humans interact with new evidence.

If you give a particular piece of evidence in favour of a proposition to a person who already thinks that proposition is fairly likely to be true, they'll update their estimate by increasing how likely they think it is to be true.

If you give the same evidence to someone who thinks the proposition is highly unlikely, they will also increase their estimate, but their new estimate will still be much lower than that of the first person.


This means that the initial information set a child starts off with is fairly important.  If you have no reliable guide outside of yourself, you can keep finding out more and more facts, and yet still end up very deceived, because with a sufficiently distorted start you'll undervalue the evidence that should have been correcting your initial view.

This is one of the reasons why a university education is so powerful.   Because everybody starts off with some 'kinks' in their initial knowledge set, thinking some things are true that just ain't so.  What a high quality university education provides (and I admit not all universities are high quality ones) is an external sounding board that provides balance - that sounds warning sirens and flashes red lights to let a person know that there is a high chance they are off the rails on some particular track of reasoning they've found themselves upon.   That's what the positive gain of doing it at a university is, over reading precisely the same books and journal papers via self-selected study.

Now it is possible to compensate for this during self-study, to force oneself without external motivation to study the full breadth of information that's available on a subject, even the bits which one's prior estimation of probabilities leads one to think will be a waste of time.  But it is very easy to deceive oneself into thinking that one is compensating effectively when in fact one isn't.  Because it is your own intellect (harnessed into providing rationalisations) that is working against you.


Now, here's my question for you:

If a person has ended up in a vicious spiral where because of an initial distorted prior probability estimate they've been led down a false path of reasoning, what methods could they use to get an 'out of the box' view of themselves, to help distinguish between the two possibilities:

1. they are one of the elite few not falling for a confidence trick and it is society that is vastyly incorrect

or

2. they are wrong


It is a tricky question.  Just looking for facts and evidence won't help distinguish much, because their brains are now loaded via Bayes' Theorem to place far different evaluations upon new data than the rest of society places upon it.  Something others dismiss as obviously false, they will see as highly significant.

Similarly, if they look for others who share their views they will find them.  There are 7 billion people on this planet.  Whatever the view, however false, you can find people on YouTube and website who support it.   (Doubly so if there is a financial or political interest for some people in supporting it.)

So how can such a person get a reality check?  Once someone is in such a hole, how can they tell they are in a hole at all (as opposed to being isolated by being, for example, on a mountain peak of inspired revelation), let alone escape from it?

how to escape?

Here's one approach:

Don't look for others who share your view.   Don't look for others who oppose your view.

Instead, look for others whose thinking you admire on an entirely different topic, BEFORE you know their views upon the question you're concerned about.

Once you've selected some people whose thinking you trust, then find out what they think about your question.  And if, even after they've been exposed to the same theories you've been exposed to, the vast majority of them turn out to disagree with your analysis, don't suddenly change your opinion of them to think they now must suddenly be gullible fools.  Instead consider the possibility that it is you who have been led astray.

Della529
by Silver Member on Apr. 14, 2012 at 10:03 PM

 With regard to the last video you have sourced:

What is your understanding regarding US citizenship?  Indonesian citizenship?

Also, I'd like to ask if you're familiar with the creator of those videos and have you watched all of them?  Do you believe Chinese troops are mobilized 60 miles from the US Texas Border?  Do you believe in FEMA camps?  The Illuminati?  What do you know of the Bilderberg Group?

jcribb16
by Primrose Foxglove on Apr. 14, 2012 at 10:14 PM

That's okay - emotional is perfectly okay.  Thank you for sharing about your Katie.  I'm just glad that both of you came through okay and have each other today.  {{Hugs}}

Quoting Friday:


Quoting jcribb16:

I do hope you hear soon about the disability.

Wow - that book would have stuck with me, too!  No wonder you would be worried.  I'm glad it was fiction.

I'm not quite sure what you meant about DD - is she okay?

Quoting Friday:


Quoting jcribb16:

I still have a hard time with my mom gone, and it's been 5 years already.  Time flies, but it still seems so recent to me.  I remember the first year was horrendous and I feel for you.

I don't have a hearing date yet, either.  They've only had the case for about 3 weeks - so I guess it's going to be another wait.  That's better for me to handle, though, knowing they are working on it and know what they are doing and what everything means.

I don't like the idea of hospitals and surgery either.  I sincerely hope things will work out for the best, for you, with your thyroid issue, whether through the surgery or with meds.



Thanks. I guess I'm expecting too much of myself so soon. Mom was a tough, no nonsense kind of lady and sometimes I hear her telling me to dust myself off and move on. I don't want to disappoint her but I'm just not that tough. My bff who was like a little sister died in 1999 and I still miss her sometimes but not as much.

They seem to take forever, it's been over a month since I got a letter acknowledging my request for a hearing so I hope not much longer. At least dh is working now.

It's stupid but I read a book years ago about a woman who needed brain surgery, the surgeon slipped and she was changed for life. It was fiction but stuck with me. It's just the thought of someone cutting on me while I'm out cold. It's better than cancer tho, which it'll probably end up as eventually. I'm already on the meds, it stopped working during my last pregnancy. Been enlarged for many years but every blood test came back fine. Last pregnancy it just stopped and my blood pressure went up. DD has put me thru a lot physically and emotionally to be here but I have my baby girl so it's cool. Nothing fatal yet ; ).


DD was a difficult pregnancy, I was 37, she was breech and flipped all over. My thyroid broke and my blood pressure went up. Had a c section and she is healthy but possibly mild autism.

I was nursing my middle one, he was 18 months, and on the mini pill. Decided to get a tubal, went for the bloodwork and had to cancel because I was pregnant. Always wanted a little girl but due to my age, physical problems and finances had decided to be happy with my 2 boys. Katie just wanted to be here and I had little choice. 

My mom was divorced and broke when I was a kid and she LOVED to spoil her Katie like she wasn't able to spoil me.

Sorry, getting all emotional again.


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