So, I just looked up the latest polling numbers between Romney and Obama. Rasumssen has Romney ahead by 2%, and Gallup has Romney ahead by 1%. As those are within the statistacl margin of error, it's basically a tie right now. Considering the state of the economy the last 4 years, and as "unpopular" as many believe Obama is, why isn't Romney well ahead? What are your thoughts?
...continuing from my last post, Obama's problem is that as the incumbant he should be leading by wider margins now because the unemplyment numbers are typcially to to his disadvantage as we get closer to the elections, especially when roughly a third of the electorate is independent and a fourth is undecided; if anything, people trend to seeking "something new."
Quoting Meadowchik:
...continuing from my last post, Obama's problem is that as the incumbant he should be leading by wider margins now because the unemplyment numbers are typcially to to his disadvantage as we get closer to the elections, especially when roughly a third of the electorate is independent and a fourth is undecided; if anything, people trend to seeking "something new."
I agree that typically the incumbant is usually leading by a wider margin at this point. And I don't necessarily think that we can predict anything at this point. But some of the conservative ladies in this group and other places tend to go on and on about how unpopular the president is...how it isn't even going to be close in November, etc. I just think that if all of that was completely true, Romney would be leading by a wider margin at this point. KWIM?
Hmmm, well compared to 2008 I do think it is relatively accurate that he is much less popular. The thing is, many Dems will still vote on partisan lines even if they don't like Obama. Where it WILL make more of an impact, though, is on moderates, undecideds, and independents.
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
Quoting Meadowchik:
...continuing from my last post, Obama's problem is that as the incumbant he should be leading by wider margins now because the unemplyment numbers are typcially to to his disadvantage as we get closer to the elections, especially when roughly a third of the electorate is independent and a fourth is undecided; if anything, people trend to seeking "something new."
I agree that typically the incumbant is usually leading by a wider margin at this point. And I don't necessarily think that we can predict anything at this point. But some of the conservative ladies in this group and other places tend to go on and on about how unpopular the president is...how it isn't even going to be close in November, etc. I just think that if all of that was completely true, Romney would be leading by a wider margin at this point. KWIM?
The most pressing social issue today is the economy
It's less, but I wouldn't say it's "much" less. He won with 53% of the vote in the last election, and the polls I checked yesterday had him at about 47%.
The moderates and independents are definitely going to swing this election. I wonder if there is a profile of the "typical" moderate or independent out there. Hmm...
Quoting Meadowchik:
Hmmm, well compared to 2008 I do think it is relatively accurate that he is much less popular. The thing is, many Dems will still vote on partisan lines even if they don't like Obama. Where it WILL make more of an impact, though, is on moderates, undecideds, and independents.
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
Quoting Meadowchik:
...continuing from my last post, Obama's problem is that as the incumbant he should be leading by wider margins now because the unemplyment numbers are typcially to to his disadvantage as we get closer to the elections, especially when roughly a third of the electorate is independent and a fourth is undecided; if anything, people trend to seeking "something new."
I agree that typically the incumbant is usually leading by a wider margin at this point. And I don't necessarily think that we can predict anything at this point. But some of the conservative ladies in this group and other places tend to go on and on about how unpopular the president is...how it isn't even going to be close in November, etc. I just think that if all of that was completely true, Romney would be leading by a wider margin at this point. KWIM?
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
It's less, but I wouldn't say it's "much" less. He won with 53% of the vote in the last election, and the polls I checked yesterday had him at about 47%.
That's why I said that people will still vote on partisan lines, even if they don't like him, although in 2008 there was much more enthusiasm for him. Now there is much less enthusiasm. That won't necessarily translate into "much less" votes, though, but perhaps just enough to make him lose. Time will tell.
The moderates and independents are definitely going to swing this election. I wonder if there is a profile of the "typical" moderate or independent out there. Hmm...
Undecideds typically swing away from the incumbant during a weak economy. That's why it is critical for Obama that Romney is painted badly any way possible. This could get very, very ugly.
Quoting Meadowchik:
The most pressing social issue today is the economy
Quoting Meadowchik:
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
It's less, but I wouldn't say it's "much" less. He won with 53% of the vote in the last election, and the polls I checked yesterday had him at about 47%.
That's why I said that people will still vote on partisan lines, even if they don't like him, although in 2008 there was much more enthusiasm for him. Now there is much less enthusiasm. That won't necessarily translate into "much less" votes, though, but perhaps just enough to make him lose. Time will tell.
The moderates and independents are definitely going to swing this election. I wonder if there is a profile of the "typical" moderate or independent out there. Hmm...
Undecideds typically swing away from the incumbant during a weak economy. That's why it is critical for Obama that Romney is painted badly any way possible. This could get very, very ugly.
Quoting Meadowchik:
I agree. I think this is going to be the ugliest election in a long time.
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
Quoting Meadowchik:
Quoting JakeandEmmasMom:
It's less, but I wouldn't say it's "much" less. He won with 53% of the vote in the last election, and the polls I checked yesterday had him at about 47%.
That's why I said that people will still vote on partisan lines, even if they don't like him, although in 2008 there was much more enthusiasm for him. Now there is much less enthusiasm. That won't necessarily translate into "much less" votes, though, but perhaps just enough to make him lose. Time will tell.
The moderates and independents are definitely going to swing this election. I wonder if there is a profile of the "typical" moderate or independent out there. Hmm...
Undecideds typically swing away from the incumbant during a weak economy. That's why it is critical for Obama that Romney is painted badly any way possible. This could get very, very ugly.
Quoting Meadowchik:I agree. I think this is going to be the ugliest election in a long time.
I hope so.
We know that the POS currently in office will do anything to hold on to power, hopefully Romney has what it takes to get down and fight on his level.
Nation wide polls have no bearing on anything, the polls in the swing states are all that matter.
It's too soon for starters. There could be a hundred reasons why the polling is close. I've not believed the polls for months. Maybe not enough to make a difference but some of the Obama voters are just waiting for something good to happen so they can justify voting for him again. If it doesn't they will not vote for him in the end. I don't really think it's that close.
Quoting itsmesteph11:
It's too soon for starters. There could be a hundred reasons why the polling is close. I've not believed the polls for months. Maybe not enough to make a difference but some of the Obama voters are just waiting for something good to happen so they can justify voting for him again. If it doesn't they will not vote for him in the end. I don't really think it's that close.
Do you think that a lot of people will stay home rather than vote for "the other guy" (depending on which side of the fence they normally sit)?
Immigration Officer's Union Raising Concerns, re: Fraud and Security Risks Under Obama's Dream Act for Young Illegals
- JakeandEmmasMom
on Jun. 25, 2012 at 2:16 PM