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News & Politics News & Politics

This is why Obama remains ahead in the polls

Posted by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM
  • 36 Replies
1 mom liked this

The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.

This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.

Among the Democrats survey, 97 percent favored Obama while three percent support Romney. The Republicans surveys chose Romney by a 96 percent to two percent margin. Those margins display a high degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate, which is plausible in a campaign like this one where both sides are focusing heavily on boosting turnout among their base. Independents, who are massively under-sampled in this survey, support Romney by a 54 percent to 40 percent margin.

The sample for the CNN/ORC poll includes 50.4 percent Democrats and 45.4 percent Republicans and appears to have only 4.2 percent independents. This means independents are under-sampled 25 percent while Democrats are over-sampled 12.1 percent. Both of those are larger variations in sampling than seen in most polls that are likewise skewed by such sampling variations.

Rasmussen Reports recent reporting of partisan trends among voters, based on tens of thousands of voters surveyed, showed the voting electorate made up of 35.4 percent Republicans, 34.0 percent Democrats and 30.5 percent “Unaffiliated” or independent voters. Clearly 6.5 percent of a sample as independents is a large under-sampling of those voters compared to 30.5 percent.

Unskewing this data to make up for the likely 25 percent under-sampling of independent voters shows the results are quite different. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll's data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent. That is almost exactly the reverse of the 52 percent to 46 percent lead it reports in favor of Obama. The sampling skew of this poll actually reverses the result that should be shown by the data.


http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-would-lead-eight-unskewed-data-from-newest-cnn-orc-poll

by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM
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Replies (1-10):
DSamuels
by Gold Member on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:33 PM
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I saw this earlier. I couldn't help but giggle over the difference in "skewed" and "unskewed" numbers. It's completely reversed. The ABC/Washington post poll had them within 1 point but polled 33% dems and 23% repubs. Hmmm, that one might not be so close either.

I saw where the teachers union in Chicago is turning on Obama now too. Wouldn't it be funny if he lost his "home" state?

Polls had Mondale up by 9% over Reagan and a lot of us remember how that election turned out. 49 states to Reagan and 1 state (MN and damnit, I lived there and voted for Reagan) for Mondale.
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_Kissy_
by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:37 PM
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He's ahead because he's better and will be reelected.

It'll be so much easier if you just accept it and start finding a viable Republican for 2016/24..bwahaha, viable Republican, yea right.
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shimamab
by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:37 PM
So do independent voters make up an equal third of the electorate? Or is their sampling based on the percentage of each party's registered voters?
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shimamab
by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 7:41 PM
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Are all these skewed, too?


PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)
NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)

ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)

MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)

OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)
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DSamuels
by Gold Member on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:00 PM
I don't know. Are they asking equal numbers of dems and repubs?

Quoting shimamab:

Are all these skewed, too?





PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:



NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)

NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)



NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)



NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)



NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)



NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)



ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)



MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)



NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)



OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)



WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)
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Carpy
by Platinum Member on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:04 PM
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Think progress, alternet

Quoting _Kissy_:

He's ahead because he's better and will be reelected.

It'll be so much easier if you just accept it and start finding a viable Republican for 2012..bwahaha, viable Republican, yea right.


LucyMom08
by Silver Member on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:09 PM

 That's what I'm wondering...

Quoting shimamab:

So do independent voters make up an equal third of the electorate? Or is their sampling based on the percentage of each party's registered voters?

 

Carpy
by Platinum Member on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:09 PM
1 mom liked this

Here is Rassmussens poll for today

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Today’s data suggests that the president’s convention bounce has started to fade. See daily tracking history. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

Quoting shimamab:

Are all these skewed, too?


PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:

NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)
NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)

ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)

MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)

NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)

OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)


shimamab
by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:11 PM
Who knows? I don't put that much stock in polls to research it ;) The DNC got higher ratings and the prez got a bounce. Who knows if it'll last or the exact number of "points" it was. It seems fairly certain that Obama made up some ground is all I'm saying. There's still a lot of time, in political life, until the election. Lots can happen between now and then.

Quoting DSamuels:

I don't know. Are they asking equal numbers of dems and repubs?



Quoting shimamab:

Are all these skewed, too?








PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:





NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)


NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)





NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)





NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)





NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)





NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)





ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)





MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)





NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)





OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)





WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)
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shimamab
by on Sep. 11, 2012 at 8:16 PM
So Rasmussen is an acceptable poll to quote? I just don't see the point I debating each poll. Some are accurate, others are questionable. But when there is a consensus among them, I go ahead and roll with it, KWIM? If there was a concerted effort by CNN to mislead us, that would be unethical. As it stands, they put all their info out there for us to disseminate as we will.

Quoting Carpy:

Here is Rassmussens poll for today


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows
President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while
Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other
candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.




Today’s data suggests that the president’s convention bounce has started to fade. See daily tracking history.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49% and Romney 47%. Leaners are
those who initially indicate no preference for either candidate but
express a preference for one of them in a follow-up question.

Quoting shimamab:

Are all these skewed, too?





PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:



NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)

NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)



NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)



NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)



NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)



NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)



ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)



MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)



NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)



OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)



WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)


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