vWith the 2012 presidential election now less than 50 days away pollsters are releasing more polls of the key swing states that will ultimately decide who occupies the White House next year. Just yesterday, new polls were released in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire.
While every state matters in the 2012 presidential election, in all honesty some matter more than others. President Obama will certainly win New York, for example, and Mitt Romney will certainly win Texas. The states that both candidates will spend the most time and money in over the next two months is the key "swings states" listed below.
Below are the updates for each state, including the most recent poll, a Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls, an average of polls from the last two weeks, and Nate Silver’s probabilities for who will win the state. Last week's update showed President Obama leading in nine out of the ten states listed below, and the President continues to hold on to those leads in this update.
Florida
- Electoral Votes: 29
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Fox News 9/19)
- RCP Average: Obama 48.0%, Romney 46.0%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 48.0%, Romney 46.0%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 57.0% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: President Obama is leading in the most recent poll from Fox News, and increased his lead in the RCP average and two-week average since last week. Despite this new data, Nate Silver gave Obama a 62.7% chance of victory in Florida last week, but that has now changed to a 57.0% chance of an Obama victory.
Ohio
- Electoral Votes: 18
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Fox News 9/19)
- RCP Average: Obama 48.6%, Romney 43.8%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Romney 48.6%, Obama 43.8%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 73.5% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: President Obama continues to increase his lead in the RCP average greatly increased from 4.2 points last week to 4.8 points this week.
Virginia
- Electoral Votes: 13
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Fox News 9/19)
- RCP Average: Obama 50.2%, Romney 45.5%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 50.2%, Romney 45.5%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 68.4% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: President Obama made the largest polling gains in Virginia over the last week. The most recent poll from Fox News shows Obama leading by seven points. Obama also greatly increased his lead by a few points in the RCP average and two-week average. Nate Silver increased Obama's odds for victory by 3.3 percent.
North Carolina
- Electoral Votes: 15
- Most Recent Poll: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (PPP 9/9)
- RCP Average: Romney 49.8%, Obama 45.0%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Romney 50.67%, Obama 45.67%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 74.8% chance of Romney win
- Changes Since Last Update: North Carolina continues to be the only swing state favoring Mitt Romney. The numbers from North Carolina continue to trend towards Romney when looking at the RCP average and two-week average. Nate Silver increased Romney's chances for victory here by 7.6 percent.
Colorado
- Electoral Votes: 9
- Most Recent Poll: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (Rasmussen 9/17)
- RCP Average: Obama 47.3%, Romney 46.0%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 47.3%, Romney 46.0%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 61.5% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: The newest poll has Romney with a two point lead over Obama, but the RCP average and two-week average continue to favor President Obama. The numbers from Colorado have certainly been trending toward Romney over the last week, and Nate Silver decreased Obama's chances for victory here by 11.1 percent.
Iowa
- Electoral Votes: 6
- Most Recent Poll: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (PPP 8/26)
- RCP Average: Obama 45.0%, Romney 44.8%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: No polls in last two weeks.
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 70.5% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: It has been a while since pollsters released any new data from Iowa, which is curious since the state may end up be decisive if Romney performs better than expected on Election Day.. Nate Silver decreased Obama's odds for victory by 4.8 percent.
Nevada
- Electoral Votes: 6
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (PPP 8/26)
- RCP Average: Obama 49.0%, Romney 45.7%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: No polls in last two weeks.
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 82.9% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: Like Iowa, Nevada is starving for an updated poll. Still, Nate Silver slightly decreased Obama's odds for victory by 2.8 percent.
Wisconsin
- Electoral Votes: 10
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 54%, Romney 40% (Marquette 9/16)
- RCP Average: Obama 50.7%, Romney 44.3%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 52.5%, Romney 42.5%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 82.5% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: After Mitt Romney picked Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) as his running mate Wisconsin appeared competitive. However, two polls released this week show Obama leading in the Badger state by seven points and fourteen points respectively. Wisconsin is on the edge of no longer being considered a swing state in this presidential election.
Michigan
- Electoral votes: 16
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 52%, Romney 44% (CNN/Opinion Research 9/18)
- RCP Average: Obama 48.3%, Romney 41.8%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 48.3%, Romney 41.8%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 94.6% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: A new poll by CNN/Opinion Research shows Obama with an eight point lead in Michigan, and the President continues to hold large leads in the RCP and two-week average. Nate Silver decreased Obama's chances for victory here by 2.1 percent, but Michigan, like Wisconsin, appears close to no longer being a battleground states based on the polling data.
Pennsylvania
- Electoral votes: 20
- Most Recent Poll: Obama 50%, Romney 41% (Morning Call 9/16)
- RCP Average: Obama 49.0%, Romney 41.7%
- Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 50%, Romney 40%
- Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 92.8% chance of Obama win
- Changes Since Last Update: Like Michigan and Wisconsin, President Obama continues to poll strong in Pennsylvania to the point that the state can likely be decalred no longer in play. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court sent the state's voter identification law back to a lower court to review the requirement by a new, stricter standard. If the voter identification requirements stay in effect it could aid Romney. Nate Silver slightly decreased Obama's odds for victory by 0.9 percent.
Leading with hate and intolerance only leads to MORE hate and intolerance.
Here's another (-) CO:
September 20, 2012
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the today's swing state polls, updated as needed throughout the day:
Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 44% (Caddell/McLaughlin)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 38% (Detroit News)
New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 40% (YouGov)
North Carolina: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Caddell/McLaughlin)
Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (We Ask America)
You won't get many comments. They don't believe polls unless they are in their favor.
It's interesting that some of these polls were taken before Romney made his latest gaffe. So it seems the momentum was in Obama's favor even then.
My only thoughts about the Pennsylvania poll is: Are they taking the voter id law into account? And How are the 3rd parties playing into this?
Although the ruling has been sent back to the lower courts for review, the lower courts have said, they are not going to get around to it until after the election. The estimates put the disenfranchised voters at around 8-14% with the majority of these voters in the Democrat camp.
Also the polls around here will only count the 3rd party candidates if YOU bring them up. I wonder how many will see another name on the ballot and vote that way?
Lois Lerner, IRS Official, On Leave Of Absence: Reports
- Sisteract
on Sep. 20, 2012 at 11:07 AM