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News & Politics News & Politics

Another ploy or just really cut backs?

Posted by on Oct. 6, 2012 at 10:19 AM
  • 3 Replies

Why the Networks Cut Exit Polls

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The networks and the Associated Press have an insidious plan to help President Obama on Election Day that is being swept under the rug: they are cutting nineteen states from the list of exit polls they will report. For twenty years, all 50 states have been reported, but somehow this year the networks and AP are ignoring 19 of them. Now just how and why were those 19 states selected?

The ostensible reason given is the rising cost of the surveys. Dan Merkle, director of elections for ABC News, and a member of the consortium that runs the polls, said the goal “is to still deliver a quality product in the most important states.”

So just which states are being ignored? Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

The Washington Post tried to gloss over the scheme, noting “how carefully the exit poll planners allocated resources. All 19 of the states with no exit polls are classified as either “solid Obama” or “solid Romney.”

Really? Of the nineteen states (including Washington, D.C.) exactly 4 are for Obama, with a total of 14 electoral votes. The fifteen Romney states add up to 135.

It is utter hogwash that the exit polls were cut from these states because they were in the bag for one of the candidates. If Texas is cut, how about New York and California?

The real reason the consortium has cut these states is that they know that if they report fifteen states coming in for Romney early, independent voters in other states will take notice and be swayed his way.

There is no way that the networks and AP can rationalize their decision without damning themselves with their obvious partisanship. In 2008, the major media outlets were in the tank and lined up for Obama, but it was done under the radar. Now it’s all-encompassing. They are goose-stepping in public.

by on Oct. 6, 2012 at 10:19 AM
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Replies (1-3):
gsprofval
by Gold Member on Oct. 6, 2012 at 10:25 AM

This wreaks of obama threatening because he wants everyone to believe how great he is. We know he is a failure, though.

DSamuels
by Gold Member on Oct. 6, 2012 at 10:37 AM
1 mom liked this
I'm not so sure this is a bad thing. The exit polls were WAY off last election and it made the people who used them look like utter fools.

From huffpo: Should you trust the exit polling data? The short answer is: No. The longer answer is: Noooooooooooo. Right now, if there's one memory that remains -- stinging -- to a nation of Democratic voters it's the memory of a slate of crazy Kerry-leaning exit polls that made it look like Bush was going down to defeat at about 4:30pm on Election Day. It didn't turn out that way.

And I found this from Election Defense Alliance which was formed after the 2004 election where Bush won although exit polling showed Kerry winning.

The exit poll information I had at the time was approximately the following:

Indiana: Obama by 5
Virginia: Obama by 9
Ohio: Obama by 8
North Carolina: Obama by 3
Pennsylvania: Obama by 15
Georgia: McCain by 2
National: Obama by 8.3

As it turned out later (which is not surprising), as in 2004, the Democratic Presidential candidate performed substantially better in exit polls than in the official vote count:
Official vote margin and discrepancy between exit poll and official vote count

Indiana: Obama by 1; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Virginia: Obama by 5; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Ohio: Obama by 4; exit poll discrepancy of 4
North Carolina: Obama by 0; exit poll discrepancy of 3
Pennsylvania: Obama by 11; exit poll discrepancy of 4
Georgia: McCain by 5; exit poll discrepancy of 3
National: Obama by 6.1; exit poll discrepancy of 2.2

Most of these exit poll discrepancies are beyond the margin of error or very close to the margin of error. That national exit poll discrepancy, though smaller than the others, is well beyond the margin of error because the sample size is much larger than for the state polls.

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JakeandEmmasMom
by Gold Member on Oct. 6, 2012 at 11:38 AM

 There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that Utah or Oklahoma or Texas is going to suddenly fall for Obama.  So, what is the big deal? 

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