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Romney’s Post Debate Bounce Evaporates as Obama Returns to Leading by 5

Posted by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 5:35 PM
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1 mom liked this

Mitt Romney may have gotten one of the shortest post-debate bounces in history as swing state and national polls reveal Obama in the lead.

The big confusion today has been over the Gallup daily tracking poll. On Monday morning, the Gallup daily tracking poll had the race tied at 47%-47%, but by Monday afternoon, the poll was updated to show President Obama leading 50%-45%.

So, what gives?

It turns out that Gallup broke with their own tradition, and changed their methodology. Instead of using a 7 day rolling average, they compared two sets of three day averages. Monday afternoon’s update included Saturday and Sunday polling. When they returned to the 7 day average, and included polling after the new jobs numbers were released, President Obama returned to a 50%-45% lead.

More data is needed, but it seems that Mitt Romney got roughly a one day bounce from the debate. The combination of Romney being called out across all media for his barrage of lies along with the vastly improved unemployment rate worked together to virtually neutralize any bounce that Romney had gained from Wednesday night.

The latest swing state polls are coming in, and it looks like the Romney bounce is also fading at the state level. The latest polling of Colorado shows Obama leading Romney 47%-43%, and in Virginia, the president leads 50%-47%. Even conservative pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa. Rasmussen polls are frequently cited by conservatives and Fox News, but they have been found to have a4 point bias towards Republicans. So when Rasmussen claims Obama is up by one (Colorado) or two (Iowa) the potential Obama lead could be closer to 5 or 6 points.


This election did get closer after the debate, mostly because Republicans have been energized by Romney’s debate performance, but recent polling suggests that the new jobs/unemployment numbers crushed any potential for the results of the first debate to be a game changer.

The initial panic by Democrats and claims of momentum by Republicans after the first debate were both premature. The dynamics of this presidential election remain in about the same place where they have been for months. Obama is leading, but it is competitive.

Romney didn’t score a debate knockout, and if this election stays on its established trajectory, President Obama will be in position to win a second term.

However, the winner of this election will likely be determined by which campaign is more successful in turning out their supporters to vote.

http://www.politicususa.com/romney.html

by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 5:35 PM
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Billiejeens
by Ruby Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Winner!

Most desperate post of the day.

Congrats.

trippyhippy
by Silver Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:00 PM


itsmesteph11
by Silver Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:03 PM
2 moms liked this

That would be the "IN YOUR DREAMS POLL"

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 49% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.   That's within the margin of error.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.   Thats called a TIE

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-two percent (42%) are certain they will vote for Obama. More Romney voters know they will vote for him

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows the president with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)Also within the margin of error.

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Wow, your numbers don't look like this.  I guess I get to post this and say Romney/Obama are pretty much tied. Just as they have been since the day after the debates   :)

mom2twinboyz
by Bronze Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:25 PM
1 mom liked this

 

 

Thank You! That is excactly what i was looking ar, dont know what polls the OP is looking at. Rasmussen happened to be most accurate in "08.

Quoting itsmesteph11:

That would be the "IN YOUR DREAMS POLL"

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 49% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.   That's within the margin of error.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.   Thats called a TIE

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-two percent (42%) are certain they will vote for Obama. More Romney voters know they will vote for him

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows the president with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)Also within the margin of error.

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Wow, your numbers don't look like this.  I guess I get to post this and say Romney/Obama are pretty much tied. Just as they have been since the day after the debates   :)


Billiejeens
by Ruby Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead

GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas

Overview

2012 Election Voter Preference Trends

Track voter preferences for Obama vs. Romney overall and by demographic group among registered voters.

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.

More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September.

Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%.

In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.

Views of Candidates’ Traits, Issue Strengths

Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas.

Conversely, Obama continues hold leads as the candidate who connects well with ordinary people and takes consistent positions on issues. And Obama leads by 10 points (49% to 39%) as the candidate who takes more moderate positions on issues.

Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points.

In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney).

Similarly, Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%.

Romney also has once again opened a double-digit advantage as the candidate who can deal with the budget deficit (51% vs. 36%). Romney led by 14 points on the budget deficit in July, but had lost that advantage last month.

Swing voters express varying views of the candidates’ strengths. Some 18% of registered voters are swing voters in the latest survey, meaning they are either undecided, only lean toward one of the candidates, or favor a candidate but say there is still a chance they will change their mind. A month ago, 22% of registered voters fell in this category.

By a 69% to 7% margin, swing voters say Obama is the candidate who connects will with ordinary Americans. Swing voters also tend to rate Obama as the more consistent, honest and moderate candidate, and as a strong leader. Swing voters also favor Obama on the issues of health care, Medicare and foreign policy.

But Romney continues to hold a decided edge over Obama on jobs and the budget deficit. By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.

Obama, Romney Now Seen as Equally Likely to Help the Middle Class

A substantial majority of voters continue to say that Mitt Romney’s policies would help the wealthy, but he has made gains since the summer in the perception that his policies as president would help the much-discussed middle class. In July, just 41% thought Romney’s policies would help the middle class. This has risen to 49% in the current poll; a comparable percentage of voters (50%) say that Obama’s policies would help the middle class.

Three-quarters of voters say Romney’s policies would benefit the wealthy (75%), basically unchanged from July (74%). Far fewer (31%) see Obama’s policies benefiting the wealthy. Conversely, two-thirds (66%) see Obama’s policies as likely to benefit the poor, compared with 39% who say the same about Romney’s policies.

Romney’s gains on the question of how his policies would affect the middle class have come largely among upper-income voters. Among voters with incomes of $150,000 or more, the percentage saying Romney’s policies would help the middle class rose from 47% in July to 68% now. Among voters in households with incomes between $75,000 and $150,000, the increase was 10 points (from 44% to 54%). Voters in lower-income households have not changed their view of whether Romney would help the middle class, and those with household incomes under $30,000 continue to see Obama as doing more for the middle class.

Romney’s Image Improves, Obama’s Dips

The edge in favorability ratings that Barack Obama had enjoyed throughout the campaign has now been erased, as voters’ impressions of Romney have continued to improve while Obama’s ratings have returned to levels seen earlier in the summer. Currently, voters are about evenly divided in their overall opinions of both Obama (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable) and Romney (50% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

While shifts are evident across many demographic groups, there has been a notable change among women voters: In September, just 42% viewed Romney favorably, while 60% had positive impressions of Obama. Today, about half view each of the candidates favorably (51% Obama, 48% Romney).

Romney also has gained ground with younger voters. Today, 51% of those under 50 have positive impressions of the GOP candidate, up from 43% in September. Mirroring Romney’s improvement among these younger voters is an erosion in Obama’s ratings among this group: 49% of 18-49-year-old voters now view him favorably, down 10 points from September.

Views of Candidate Criticisms

While Romney’s personal image and standing in the horserace have improved markedly, two criticisms of the candidate register widely with voters – especially swing voters.

About six-in-ten voters (62%) agree with the statement that “Romney is promising more than he can deliver,” while 35% disagree. Among swing voters, fully 75% agree, which is closer to the views of certain Obama voters (89% agree) than certain Romney voters (30% agree).

Just more than half of voters (53%) also agree that “It’s hard to know what Romney really stands for.” This includes two thirds (66%) of swing voters, 86% of certain Obama voters and just 16% of certain Romney voters.

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