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*UPDATED 8/29 12:10PM* HURRICANE GUSTAV

Posted by on Aug. 27, 2008 at 2:42 PM
  • 54 Replies
  • 704 Total Views

 

Poll

Question: Will you evacuate if this storm comes our way?

Options:

Yes!

No -i don't want to

No -i have no way to leave or anywhere to go

Still thinking if i want to leave or not


Only group members can vote in this poll.

Total Votes: 6

View Results

**ALL COMMENTS IN THIS SECTION IS INFORMATION THAT MAY HELP YOU PREPARE FOR THIS STORM**



Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2008

 
since the last aircraft fix over western Jamaica at about 1100
UTC...which included a central pressure estimate of 988 mb...GOES
visible imagery suggests that Gustav is regaining organization now
that its center has emerged over water west of Jamaica. The
advisory intensity is maintained at 55 kt until we receive new data
from the next aircraft this afternoon...although it is possible
that Gustav is already a little stronger. The cyclone will have
more than 24 hours over the very warm waters of the northwestern
Caribbean...and beneath an upper-level anticyclone...so
strengthening seems imminent and could even be rapid. The rapid
intensification index based on the SHIPS model indicates a 28
percent chance of an intensity increase of 30 kt or more during the
next 24 hours. Since there is about 36 hours left before Gustav
crosses Cuba...there remains some possibility that Gustav could
become a major hurricane before crossing the western portions of
that island. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico appear to support a
major hurricane as well...although wind shear could increase a
little. The new official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous one and is a little higher than the intensity consensus.
 
Gustav is moving at about 295/7 but is in the process of turning to
the right in response to the ridge to its north...and is headed for
a weakness in the ridge that is forecast by all models to develop
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
The guidance is in very good agreement on a path over the western
portions of Cuba in roughly 36 hours...followed by a track into the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter...the models diverge
tremendously over the northern Gulf due to differences in how they
handle the high moving eastward across the Great Lakes region. The
models that show a slower and more westward motion across the
northern Gulf show a little more ridging extending southwestward
from the Great Lakes high...while those that are faster and
straight northwestward toward the north-central Gulf Coast show
less of that ridging. The new official track forecast is adjusted
only slightly right of the previous advisory and the
consensus...giving respect to the NWS models GFS...GFDL...and
HWRF...which also seem to depict a slightly deeper system that we
expect Gustav to be. Needless to say...due to the model spread the
track forecast is rather uncertain...and final landfall remains
possible throughout the northern Gulf Coast.


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by on Aug. 27, 2008 at 2:42 PM
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Replies (1-10):
ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 3:09 PM


ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Gustav WWLTV.com will carry the city of New Orleans briefing on Gustav at 3 p.m. Click at 3 p.m. to view.

ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Nagin tells CNN there are no shelters of last resort this time

06:38 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Dominic Massa / Eyewitness News

As he prepared to leave the Democratic National Convention in Denver to head back to New Orleans and make plans for Gustav, Mayor Ray Nagin told CNN “a whole different strategy” will be in place to help evacuate residents if needed.

WWL-TV

Mayor Ray Nagin

In an interview Wednesday evening with CNN anchors Wolf Blitzer and Anderson Cooper, Nagin said he is “cautiously optimistic,” and hopes the storm veers away from south Louisiana at the last minute.  But he urged residents to have evacuation plans in order, and help elderly neighbors make a plan as well. 

“The big question is ‘What shape are our levees in?’  With all the work the Corps of Engineers has done, is it sufficient enough to handle what is projected to be a Category 3 that right now is poised and headed for New Orleans?”

Unlike Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Nagin said there will be no shelter of last resort, such as the Superdome or Morial Convention Center, and residents will be transported out of the city on buses and trains.  He said, if Gustav is greater than a category 2 storm and the predicted storm surge is greater than the levee height of approximately 17 to 20 feet, then a mandatory evacuation would be ordered.

When asked about the city’s plan for evacuating special needs residents, the mayor said only 7,000 people have registered through the city’s 311 hotline.  “That’s part of the challenge going forward.  But even the ones we have not identified, we will still go out into the community and try to bring them in.”

ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Jeff officials worry about protection on West Bank

06:52 PM CDT on Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Bill Capo / Eyewitness News

 At Sam's Club in Metairie, there were far more shoppers than on a normal Wednesday, with water and hurricane supplies hot commodities. Long lines of cars waited to buy gas, as residents nervously wondered where Gustav will go.

WWL-TV

Jeff officials are concerned about protection on West Bank.

"A little worried that it’s coming,” said Metairie resident Ellen McCubbin.

 "People and businesses, don't forget businesses should be going through their plans right now,” said Jefferson Homeland Security director Deano Bonano. “Where are they going, what are they going to bring, what medications do they need, what are you going to do with your pets."

Jefferson leaders don't want residents to panic, just prepared. If Gustave continues to be a threat, parish preparations could begin tomorrow morning.

"Run generators, fuel generators, test the safe rooms, we will actually begin to move supplies into our central duty locations, said Bonano.

If Gustav becomes a major hurricane, and comes ashore just west of the city, Bonano says his chief worry would be flooding on the Westbank, so he wants residents to be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

"Our biggest concern is going to be the Harvey Canal and those levee systems on the West Bank,” said Bonano. “Because those upgrades to the levee systems are not completed yet."

In a major storm going east of the city, East bank lakefront levees have been beefed up since Katrina, and there are plans to prevent flooding at Airline Highway if the 17th street canal fills up.

"Jefferson parish will close Airline Highway and Build a levee across it in a Category Three or higher storm,” Bonano said.

Jefferson Parish leaders say as many as 13,000 people may not have transportation if an evacuation is called. Only about 2000 have registered so far, so they are expecting a lot of last minute calls, but say they'll be prepared to help those who need it.

"All of our public transportation busses would run rotes, and only pick up people who want to be evacuated, and bring them to the Yenni Building or the Alario Center,” Bonano continued. “You'll be processed and put on state chartered busses and brought to safe shelters throughout Louisiana."

Already the Elmwood Home Depot has had to re-stock plywood, gas cans, and generators, with larger crowds expected tomorrow throughout the area.

"We're trying to definitely beat the crowd, obviously we haven't. We're going to try and get out of here as soon as we can if it is even headed at us,” said Metairie resident A.J. Avants.

ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 11:15 PM
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Gustav
 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 GMT 08/25/08 15.5N 70.1W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
18 GMT 08/25/08 15.8N 70.5W 60 996 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/25/08 16.3N 71.0W 60 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/26/08 16.6N 71.4W 70 990 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/26/08 17.2N 71.9W 85 984 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/08 17.9N 72.4W 90 981 Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/26/08 18.4N 73.2W 75 992 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/27/08 18.6N 73.6W 70 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/27/08 18.6N 73.5W 60 998 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/27/08 18.8N 74.0W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/27/08 19.1N 74.4W 50 999 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/28/08 18.8N 75.4W 45 999 Tropical Storm
ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM

10PM GUSTAV
August 27, 2008


Some changes in the 10pm advisory. Gustav is more to the wsw of it's earlier position. Movement is wsw at 8 mph. Wind are at 45 mph and is at 18.8N 75.4W. The other change is the intensity during the next several days. It is expected to remain a tropical storm Thursday and a hurricane by 7pm Friday. Current NHC forecast keeps it as a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf and near our coast by 7pm Monday evening. See our hurricane page for the track.

There is still much uncertainty in the future track. People from the upper Texas coast to FL panhandle need to watch.

ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 27, 2008 at 11:33 PM

Message from Mayor C. Ray Nagin

Dear Parish Residents,

The safety and well-being of the citizens of New Orleans is my greatest priority. For this reason, our Office of Emergency Preparedness has prepared this Guide to help individuals during times of natural or man-made disaster. The information contained is designed to help everyone deal with these emergencies in an effective and successful manner. Knowledge is power and knowing what to do during an emergency can be lifesaving. Our City, due to its central gulf location, is one of the most vulnerable in America to the furies of a hurricane. Heavy rains, because of our topography, can and do cause severe flooding. Our City’s place as one of the busiest rail centers and second busiest ports exposes us to potentially numerous hazardous materials incidents. All of these factors combine to make an effective Citizen’s Guide a necessity. This, our second annual update, serves that purpose. But, like any good tool, it is useless unless read and acted upon. Its place is not on a shelf gathering dust, but in an easily accessible family emergency kit where it can be used.

The Guide’s purpose is to:

  1. Inform citizens of the hazards they face.
  2. Provide guidance in preparing their own individual emergency plan.
  3. Advise them of the proper procedure needed to be followed in the event of an emergency.

In reviewing its contents, the reader should pay particular attention to the section on Evacuation. Knowing the routes of egress during situations such as hurricanes, can avoid needless injury and loss of life. It is my fervent hope that the information contained in the Guide will never have to be used; however, being ready for an emergency before it occurs, through adequate preparation and planning, is the first step in surviving a disaster. Preparedness must begin with the individual and be carried over to the family, and then into the community in order to thwart any incident or disaster that may be visited upon us. Should you have any questions or concerns, please contact the Office of Emergency Preparedness (504)658-8700 located in City Hall Room 9E06, 1300 Perdido St., New Orleans, LA. 70112

Sincerely,

C. Ray Nagin
Mayor

ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 28, 2008 at 11:04 AM
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial 28/1500z 17.9n 76.1w 60 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 17.9n 77.1w 65 kt...near Jamaica
24hr VT 29/1200z 18.4n 79.0w 70 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 19.1n 80.8w 80 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 20.2n 82.6w 95 kt
72hr VT 31/1200z 23.5n 86.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 27.0n 89.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 29.5n 91.0w 100 kt...near coast of la
ashybaby87
by Group Owner on Aug. 28, 2008 at 2:23 PM

New Orleans announces criminal and civil court closings

01:19 PM CDT on Thursday, August 28, 2008
Rob Nelson / Eyewitness News

Ahead of Tropical Storm Gustav's likely entrance into the Gulf of Mexico, several officials from New Orleans' criminal and civil court systems announced Thursday several closures and relocations:

WWL-TV

The Criminal District Court building will close Friday, Aug. 29 and reopen Tuesday, Sept. 2. If evacuations become necessary, the court will relocate to Pineville, Louisiana, along with the Orleans Parish District Attorney's Office, the public defender's office and the clerk of criminal court's office.

Residents set for jury duty on Sept. 2 or Sept. 4 must report to court Sept. 9 Resident who have jury duty Sept. 3 must report Sept. 8. For more information, please call 800.541.9505 or visit www.criminalcourt.org.

Orleans Parish Criminal Sheriff Marlin Gusman said his office remains in contact with both state and federal authorities. He said an evacation of inmates is a "phased and complex" process but stressed that his office is following its post-Katrina emergency plan. That plan includes relocating inmates to facilities in the state but out of the storm's path. That process would have to begin before the start of contraflow. The booking and intake facility will continue to function as normal but can be moved to the 2nd floor of the House of Detention if necessary. If that space becomes unavailable, an alternate location will be found.

Civil District Court will be closed for hearings only this Friday and Tuesday. Any jurors scheduled to report on those days are relieved of duty. The civil court building will not be closed but will only be available for emergencies. (this office also includes the recorder of mortgages and the register of conveyances as well as 1st and 2nd city court.) Please call 504.592.9100 for more information.

The Clerk of Civil Court's building will remain open for filing only. If needed, it will relocate to Gonzales, where officials said the operation can be and running within 2 or 3 days.

The Orleans Parish Civil Sheriff's Office said it will follow the clerk's office wherever it sets up shop during the weather emergency. It will aid in the possible evacuation process at Union Passenger Terminal downtown. A skeletal staff will remain in the courthouse Friday and Tuesday and a full-staff will resume work Wednesday, if possible.

The Orleans Parish District Attorney's Office is closing today at 3 pm and will reopen Wednesday. Some staff will remain in the city; others are heading to Pineville.

The Orleans Parish Public Defender's Office will close today at 2 pm. It will also relocate to Pineville.

The New Orleans Police Department will continue to operate as normal until an emergency declaration by Mayor Ray Nagin.

The Clerk of Criminal Court's office will close today at 4 pm and will reopen Wednesday at 8 am.

All of these plans, of course, are subject to change depending on the track and impact of the storm.

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