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What, exactly is the claim that the September unemployment numbers are falsified about, anyway?

Posted by   + Show Post

So it has been repeatedly stated in threads on this board that the report is somehow false, or misleading in some way.  What is behind this claim?  Do people really think that the numbers are false?  Do they think that the number is only down because of people who have dropped out of the workforce?   Are there really people who think Obama can influence the BLS to put out false numbers?

It seems to be the latest Republican talking point.  

ETA Here is the link to the Sept report.  You can also read past reports and look up stats, even for the "real" unemployment number.  They will explain what each number means and who it will include, it is an interesting site. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

by on Oct. 7, 2012 at 5:49 PM
Replies (61-70):
stacymomof2
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Why do you think the BLS is more loyal to this administration than to any other?  These are a bunch of statisticians and scientists.  Why would they lie for Obama?  

Quoting toomanypoodles:

 

Quoting stacymomof2:

Do you think the BLS report is false?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting FromAtoZ:


Quoting toomanypoodles:

 Falsified numbers!?!?  GASP!  Say it isn't so!

Exactly how are the numbers falsified?  You do have an opinion on this, yes?  

Nah...I'm waiting for FACTS.


 I don't have enough info yet...just heard it's in question.  But at this point, nothing would surprise me.  Desperation causes people to put false information out there.


Carpy
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:17 PM
1 mom liked this

The record number of people who now collect disability are now removed from the count.  The number of jobs created does not come close to the number they claim started work.

smalltowngal
by Platinum Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Ok, here is why the unemployment rate wasn't that great.

1. The participation rate fell and is at a muti-year low. There are a lot of families that use to have two incomes and are relying on one now so theyre struggling. 

2. You need 200k+ new jobs added a month to keep up with population growth. So in theory, the unemployment rate should have gone up even with 114k jobs created because you have 200k+ new people joining the work force because of immigration and getting older. 

3. The Fed is has a dual mandate and one is to have the unemployment rate at a decent level. They have been adding massive amounts of liquidity to the market each month through programs like QE3 and operation twist with out seeing much in results. What will have to the unemployment rate once the Fed withdraws all its support? 

stacymomof2
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Data on the employment status of people with a disability

In June 2008, questions were added to the Current Population Survey (CPS) to identify persons with a disability in the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older. The addition of these questions allowed BLS to begin releasing monthly labor force data from the CPS for persons with a disability. The collection of these data is sponsored by the Department of Labor’s Office of Disability Employment Policy.

Publication of CPS disability data began in February 2009 with the issuance of labor force data for January 2009. Beginning with the release of the January 2010 data on February 5, 2010, information on the employment status of persons by disability status was included as part of the monthly Employment Situation news release in table A-6. Additional information is available in an annual news release focusing on the employment status of persons with a disability.

Explanatory materials are available on the frequently asked questions page. These materials provide information on comparisons with other data sources, variability of the data, and the types of data available. Additionally, links to historical data and alternate formats are located below.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsdisability.htm/

Quoting Carpy:

The record number of people who now collect disability are now removed from the count.  The number of jobs created does not come close to the number they claim started work.


ms-superwoman
by Silver Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I have heard some people say they dont feel that minimum wage or seasonal jobs count. Which I don't really understand, a little income is better than no income. 

toomanypoodles
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:24 PM
Quoting stacymomof2:

Why do you think the BLS is more loyal to this administration than to any other?  These are a bunch of statisticians and scientists.  Why would they lie for Obama?  

Quoting toomanypoodles:

 

Quoting stacymomof2:

Do you think the BLS report is false?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting FromAtoZ:


Quoting toomanypoodles:

 Falsified numbers!?!?  GASP!  Say it isn't so!

Exactly how are the numbers falsified?  You do have an opinion on this, yes?  

Nah...I'm waiting for FACTS.


 I don't have enough info yet...just heard it's in question.  But at this point, nothing would surprise me.  Desperation causes people to put false information out there.


IDK, this all just came out. Let's wait and see what comes from it.
stacymomof2
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Good points, and it isn't THAT great.  But it certainly is an upward trend, there were some good numbers in there.

Quoting smalltowngal:

Ok, here is why the unemployment rate wasn't that great.

1. The participation rate fell and is at a muti-year low. There are a lot of families that use to have two incomes and are relying on one now so theyre struggling. 

2. You need 200k+ new jobs added a month to keep up with population growth. So in theory, the unemployment rate should have gone up even with 114k jobs created because you have 200k+ new people joining the work force because of immigration and getting older. 

3. The Fed is has a dual mandate and one is to have the unemployment rate at a decent level. They have been adding massive amounts of liquidity to the market each month through programs like QE3 and operation twist with out seeing much in results. What will have to the unemployment rate once the Fed withdraws all its support? 


stacymomof2
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Came out from where?  That was my question in the OP, but I never really got an answer.  Who is behind the claim?  What exactly are they saying?  Are they just saying they don't like the admin's spin on it?  Or are they claiming the numbers are actually falsified?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting stacymomof2:

Why do you think the BLS is more loyal to this administration than to any other?  These are a bunch of statisticians and scientists.  Why would they lie for Obama?  

Quoting toomanypoodles:

 

Quoting stacymomof2:

Do you think the BLS report is false?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting FromAtoZ:


Quoting toomanypoodles:

 Falsified numbers!?!?  GASP!  Say it isn't so!

Exactly how are the numbers falsified?  You do have an opinion on this, yes?  

Nah...I'm waiting for FACTS.


 I don't have enough info yet...just heard it's in question.  But at this point, nothing would surprise me.  Desperation causes people to put false information out there.


IDK, this all just came out. Let's wait and see what comes from it.


toomanypoodles
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:47 PM

 

Quoting stacymomof2:

Came out from where?  That was my question in the OP, but I never really got an answer.  Who is behind the claim?  What exactly are they saying?  Are they just saying they don't like the admin's spin on it?  Or are they claiming the numbers are actually falsified?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting stacymomof2:

Why do you think the BLS is more loyal to this administration than to any other?  These are a bunch of statisticians and scientists.  Why would they lie for Obama?  

Quoting toomanypoodles:

 

Quoting stacymomof2:

Do you think the BLS report is false?

Quoting toomanypoodles:

Quoting FromAtoZ:


Quoting toomanypoodles:

 Falsified numbers!?!?  GASP!  Say it isn't so!

Exactly how are the numbers falsified?  You do have an opinion on this, yes?  

Nah...I'm waiting for FACTS.


 I don't have enough info yet...just heard it's in question.  But at this point, nothing would surprise me.  Desperation causes people to put false information out there.


IDK, this all just came out. Let's wait and see what comes from it.


 I don't know anything, Stace.  It remains to be seen what will come of these, as of now, rumors. 

LoveMyBoyK
by Ruby Member on Oct. 7, 2012 at 8:48 PM
If you say you have not heard it before, fine, but it WAS said. It is funny to me that supporters of party in power never seem to have witnessed overheard their own acting in the same manner theybscold the other side for acting. Dems today claim they never heard Bush called stupid nichknames, never heard his Admin disrespected,now never heard his unemployment figures questioned as false ...


Quoting stacymomof2:

Honestly, I have never, until right now, heard the claim that the numbers were "falsified."  I have heard of people neglecting to mention the higher number, I have heard of people highlighting the good numbers and downplaying the bad.  But I have never before heard the numbers were "falsified" ever, from either party, until this month.  And the explanation people are giving is that the real rate is higher.  Except the real rate has always been higher, and people haven't claimed the reports were "falsified" before.

ETA look at poodles post above mine.  She is questioning the BLS falsifying data.  That is something I have never heard before.

Quoting LoveMyBoyK:

Yeah, and that was true years ago, too. That is my point - these reports are aleays lauded by the party in charge and demonized by the opposition. If you want to know why, try asking those on BOTH sides who do it instead of imlying it is a one sided phenomenon (phenomena??) that just "suddenly" croppwd up.





Quoting stacymomof2:

Pretty close.  It also counts how many people went from officially "unemployed" meaning they are on unemployment and that number has gone down considerably.  And since the disaffected workers number did not have a corresponding jump, and the people who are reporting being employed is up, this seems like pretty good news on the whole.  It also means that people who are entering the workforce as new workers are finding jobs.

Quoting LoveMyBoyK:

Yeah, but the OP is saying the report has compensted for that because that number has not changed so the numbera that HAVE changed must be the number of people who are on the unemployment rolls. So what evidence is there that THOSE numbers are falsified? At least, I think that is what she is trying to get at.








Quoting KairisMama:

I always find the number to be BS since it no longer takes into account those who have exhausted UE but have not found work. Or those who never qualified for UE to begin with but have been out of work.








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