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Current Events & Hot Topics Current Events & Hot Topics

According to Pew Research Center Romney pulls ahead...49 to 45

Posted by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:47 PM
  • 13 Replies
1 mom liked this

Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead

GOP Challenger Viewed as Candidate with New Ideas

Overview

The rest of the results can be found at the link below

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

 

I must say I was a little surprised this poll had these results.

I don't have much faith in polls...but I know a number of women on here do.

So...spin this for me.

by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:47 PM
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Replies (1-10):
_Kissy_
by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Mitt Romney may have gotten one of the shortest post-debate bounces in history as swing state and national polls reveal Obama in the lead.

The big confusion today has been over the Gallup daily tracking poll. On Monday morning, the Gallup daily tracking poll had the race tied at 47%-47%, but by Monday afternoon, the poll was updated to show President Obama leading 50%-45%.

So, what gives?

It turns out that Gallup broke with their own tradition, and changed their methodology. Instead of using a 7 day rolling average, they compared two sets of three day averages. Monday afternoon’s update included Saturday and Sunday polling. When they returned to the 7 day average, and included polling after the new jobs numbers were released, President Obama returned to a 50%-45% lead.

More data is needed, but it seems that Mitt Romney got roughly a one day bounce from the debate. The combination of Romney being called out across all media for his barrage of lies along with the vastly improved unemployment rate worked together to virtually neutralize any bounce that Romney had gained from Wednesday night.

The latest swing state polls are coming in, and it looks like the Romney bounce is also fading at the state level. The latest polling of Colorado shows Obama leading Romney 47%-43%, and in Virginia, the president leads 50%-47%. Even conservative pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa. Rasmussen polls are frequently cited by conservatives and Fox News, but they have been found to have a4 point bias towards Republicans. So when Rasmussen claims Obama is up by one (Colorado) or two (Iowa) the potential Obama lead could be closer to 5 or 6 points.


This election did get closer after the debate, mostly because Republicans have been energized by Romney’s debate performance, but recent polling suggests that the new jobs/unemployment numbers crushed any potential for the results of the first debate to be a game changer.

The initial panic by Democrats and claims of momentum by Republicans after the first debate were both premature. The dynamics of this presidential election remain in about the same place where they have been for months. Obama is leading, but it is competitive.

Romney didn’t score a debate knockout, and if this election stays on its established trajectory, President Obama will be in position to win a second term.

However, the winner of this election will likely be determined by which campaign is more successful in turning out their supporters to vote.

http://www.politicususa.com/romney.html

_Kissy_
by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 6:50 PM

ELECTION 2012 TRACKING

Oct 1-7, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

TRIAL HEAT
CHANGE
50%
+1
45%
-1
meriana
by Platinum Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:04 PM
1 mom liked this

I really don't pay any attention to polls, they tend to change nearly daily and you can usually find one that says the opposite of the first one you look at.

As for Romney being the candidate with "new ideas"...that's almost funny. Haven't heard a "new idea" come out of his mouth yet.

yourspecialkid
by Platinum Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:08 PM
Sisteract
by Whoopie on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Romney's presentation was better last week.

The meat and viable plan, not so much.

I just saw a breakdown of the polls [Pew] though and in areas of honesty, trust and consistency, Obama scores far higher.

Today, Romney is on top-good for him.



lga1965
by on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:11 PM

 Gallup Poll says Obama is ahead today. It varies from day to day. I'm not convinced that any of them mean anything.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/onpolitics/2012/10/08/romney-obama-debate-poll-shift-gallup/1619677/

Tags

4:33PM EST October 8. 2012 - President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Gallup's daily tracking poll, after the GOP presidential nominee got an initial boost following his strong debate performance last week.

The economic news released Friday, showing the unemployment rate dipping to 7.8%, appears to have helped Obama.

 

yourspecialkid
by Platinum Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:12 PM

 Rasmussen has them even at 48%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

And in the swing states...Obama 49 and Romney 47....Obama down 2 pts and Romney up 2 points in the last 4 days.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

yourspecialkid
by Platinum Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:14 PM

 

Quoting _Kissy_:

Mitt Romney may have gotten one of the shortest post-debate bounces in history as swing state and national polls reveal Obama in the lead.

The big confusion today has been over the Gallup daily tracking poll. On Monday morning, the Gallup daily tracking poll had the race tied at 47%-47%, but by Monday afternoon, the poll was updated to show President Obama leading 50%-45%.

So, what gives?

It turns out that Gallup broke with their own tradition, and changed their methodology. Instead of using a 7 day rolling average, they compared two sets of three day averages. Monday afternoon’s update included Saturday and Sunday polling. When they returned to the 7 day average, and included polling after the new jobs numbers were released, President Obama returned to a 50%-45% lead.

More data is needed, but it seems that Mitt Romney got roughly a one day bounce from the debate. The combination of Romney being called out across all media for his barrage of lies along with the vastly improved unemployment rate worked together to virtually neutralize any bounce that Romney had gained from Wednesday night.

The latest swing state polls are coming in, and it looks like the Romney bounce is also fading at the state level. The latest polling of Colorado shows Obama leading Romney 47%-43%, and in Virginia, the president leads 50%-47%. Even conservative pollster Rasmussen has Obama leading in Colorado and Iowa. Rasmussen polls are frequently cited by conservatives and Fox News, but they have been found to have a4 point bias towards Republicans. So when Rasmussen claims Obama is up by one (Colorado) or two (Iowa) the potential Obama lead could be closer to 5 or 6 points.


This election did get closer after the debate, mostly because Republicans have been energized by Romney’s debate performance, but recent polling suggests that the new jobs/unemployment numbers crushed any potential for the results of the first debate to be a game changer.

The initial panic by Democrats and claims of momentum by Republicans after the first debate were both premature. The dynamics of this presidential election remain in about the same place where they have been for months. Obama is leading, but it is competitive.

Romney didn’t score a debate knockout, and if this election stays on its established trajectory, President Obama will be in position to win a second term.

However, the winner of this election will likely be determined by which campaign is more successful in turning out their supporters to vote.

http://www.politicususa.com/romney.html

 So you can spin the Gallup...but you have nothing on the Pew....the one the in the original question.

 

Sat.Wed
by Bronze Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:16 PM
Take away the marigin of error and its a dead heat NOTHING NEW
Posted on CafeMom Mobile
trippyhippy
by Gold Member on Oct. 8, 2012 at 7:53 PM
1 mom liked this
Oooooooh, so now you conservatives believe in the validity of polls? One poll shows Romney leading and all of a sudden polls are valid. Lol
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