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We did the math: how the GOP will gerrymander [Rig] its way back to the White House

We did the math: how the GOP will gerrymander its way back to the White House


Still reeling from their second straight presidential loss to Barack Obama, Republicans are working to make drastic changes to how electoral college votes are allocated in key swing states.

Republicans in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have all proposed scrapping the “winner take all” electoral vote system in favor of plans that would reward the GOP’s recent gerrymandering. The six states considering the varied plans are all swing states that have gone for Barack Obama twice now, and others have been hard fought but ultimately gone blue for even longer.

The plans vary. In Pennsylvania, lawmakers want to siphon off a handful of electoral votes for the runner-up candidate–which has been the Republican since 1992. In other states, the proposal calls for the overall winner of the popular vote to get two votes, while the rest of the votes are distributed by congressional district. That plan is already in place in Maine and Nebraska.

What does that look like when implemented in these swing states? Here’s how it would’ve played out in the 2012 election in a handful of states controlled by Republicans.

In Florida, where Romney lost by only 1%, Obama would have lost even bigger: Romney would have picked up more than half the state’s electoral votes.

FLORIDA RIGGED

In Ohio, where Obama eked out a 2% lead, Romney would have won two-thirds of the state’s votes.

OHIO RIGGED

In Wisconsin, Romney would have won half the state’s votes, despite losing the overall vote by 7%.

WISCONSIN RIGGED

And Romney would no longer have lost his home state of Michigan, even though he lost the popular vote there by 9%. Instead, he’d have picked up nine electoral votes.

MICHIGAN RIGGED

Pennsylvania’s plan, which allocates votes based on the overall percentage, gives Romney his smallest advantage, with only eight extra electoral votes. That’s still a nice bonus for a guy who lost the state by 5% and therefore lost all 20 electoral votes.

PENNSYLVANIA RIGGED

The plan advanced this week by a Virginia Senate subcommittee is even more lopsided, allocating the two extra votes not to the popular vote winner, but to the winner of the most congressional districts. The result? Romney picks up 9 of the state’s electoral votes, despite losing the state’s popular vote by 3%.

VIRGINIA RIGGED

If the plans currently on the table were implemented in these six states alone, Romney picks up another 60 electoral votes, bringing his total to 266 nationwide, making the race much closer but not ultimately taking the victory away from Barack Obama.

An analysis by Alan Abramowitz for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics found that if a Maine—or Nebraska—style system had been in place nationwide for the 2012 election, Mitt Romney would have defeated Barack Obama, 276 electoral votes to 262 electoral votes, despite losing the popular vote by 4%. If the plan being pushed in Virginia became the law of the land nationwide, that difference would be even more stark.

This new plan reflects the fact that in all these states, Republicans are in control of the state house and have been since 2010. The successful pro-Republican gerrymandering that took place that year didn’t just protect the Republican control of the House of Representatives, but also laid the groundwork for taking back the presidency. If these plans, which are by most accounts legal (although they could be challenged in court), were to become law, it would be difficult for Democrats to win the presidency in 2016, even if they win by millions of votes.

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If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

by on Jan. 25, 2013 at 8:46 PM
Replies (11-20):
brookiecookie87
by Platinum Member on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:14 PM
2 moms liked this

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.





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If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

brookiecookie87
by Platinum Member on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:18 PM

The system they proposed does not represent more people. It discounts more people. To the point where the popular vote no longer depicts who will win-in any remote way.

I would agree with you if you said, one person should be one vote. And the person with the most votes win. That would be 100% representation

The electoral college is dated, not needed, and is now being greased up to be abused so a Political party can win without having the popular vote.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.





Join us on the 99% Moms group!
The Ninety-Nine Percent Moms   

If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

Imacakebaker
by on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:27 PM

He won half the state.  

Quoting brookiecookie87:

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.






brookiecookie87
by Platinum Member on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:32 PM

Are you in denial?

President Obama won by 9%. If Mitt Romney had 50%. That means President Obama must have had 59% for a grand total of 109% of a vote tally.

Your numbers are wrong. Your ideal of "representing more people" is wrong. If a system allows someone to lose a popular vote by 9% but win the majority of the electoral college votes. It's doing the opposite of representing more people. It's allowing the majority of the electoral college votes go to someone that gets less votes.

It's a great system if you think you won't have the popular vote anytime soon but still want to win an election and undermine democracy to do it.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

He won half the state.  

Quoting brookiecookie87:

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.








Join us on the 99% Moms group!
The Ninety-Nine Percent Moms   

If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

Imacakebaker
by on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:34 PM

Where did you get this "article?"

Obama didn't win Michigan by 9%, he won by 7%.  The numbers are wrong.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/michigan-election-results-2012_n_2047670.html

Each county should get X amount of ec votes.

Quoting brookiecookie87:

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.






Imacakebaker
by on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:37 PM

Never mind.. its from MSNBC, lol..

brookiecookie87
by Platinum Member on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:38 PM
2 moms liked this

You really are in denial. I went to the link you just gave. I clicked on Michigan.

President Obama 2,564,569 votes. 54.2%
Mitt Romney           2,115,256 votes. 44.7%

54.2 - 44.7 = 9.5.

That's using the site/source YOU gave.

President won by 9%. It doesn't make sense to create a system where someone can win by 9% and still lose in the electoral college.

Realistically everyone should get 1 vote. And the person with the most votes win.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Where did you get this "article?"

Obama didn't win Michigan by 9%, he won by 7%.  The numbers are wrong.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/michigan-election-results-2012_n_2047670.html

Each county should get X amount of ec votes.

Quoting brookiecookie87:

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.








Join us on the 99% Moms group!
The Ninety-Nine Percent Moms   

If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

brookiecookie87
by Platinum Member on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:39 PM


Again. The source you provided gives the same exact information. I guess you just realized you are wrong. And instead of trying to debate the point you decide to attack the source.

This very much reminds me when sources were saying that President Obama might win and Mitt Romney might lose and every conservative/Republican was coming out saying, "Your source is bias so it can't be true!".

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Never mind.. its from MSNBC, lol..



Join us on the 99% Moms group!
The Ninety-Nine Percent Moms   

If they enforced bank regulations like they do park rules, we wouldn't be in this mess

NWP
by guerrilla girl on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:41 PM
If you don't have the votes then rig the game..... Seems to be the strategy. After trying to suppress the vote this is the next ball they are attempting to lob.
Posted on the NEW CafeMom Mobile
Imacakebaker
by on Jan. 25, 2013 at 9:44 PM

You are right.  It was 7% in 2008.

It makes no sense that the whole country was red, and a few cities were blue, and blue won.  Maybe we should just let the big cities vote.

Quoting brookiecookie87:

You really are in denial. I went to the link you just gave. I clicked on Michigan.

President Obama 2,564,569 votes. 54.2%
Mitt Romney           2,115,256 votes. 44.7%

54.2 - 44.7 = 9.5.

That's using the site/source YOU gave.

President won by 9%. It doesn't make sense to create a system where someone can win by 9% and still lose in the electoral college.

Realistically everyone should get 1 vote. And the person with the most votes win.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Where did you get this "article?"

Obama didn't win Michigan by 9%, he won by 7%.  The numbers are wrong.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/michigan-election-results-2012_n_2047670.html

Each county should get X amount of ec votes.

Quoting brookiecookie87:

So lets get this right.

In Michigan where President Obama won the popular vote by 9%, you think it makes sense that Mitt Romney should get the most Electoral College Votes (Effectively winning the state)?

That doesn't make sense. And again that is OPPOSITE of representing the people.

Quoting Imacakebaker:

Again.. Did you see how the states were majority RED?  Where was their voice??  

Its ok to only win 4 counties and tall ALL the votes?

Quoting LucyMom08:

How so?

Quoting Imacakebaker:

It is more representative.  

Quoting LucyMom08:

You think it's fair because a Republican would have won, or the 'system' is better?



Quoting Imacakebaker:

I think its fair.  Did you notice all of those states were red.









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