Gay Marriage in the Supreme Court this week
The highest court in the land will soon hear arguments for and against gay marriage this week: on Tuesday, they will hear arguments surrounding Prop 8, and on Wednesday, around DOMA.
My prediction is that the Court is going to rule in favor of gay marriage in both cases, striking down Prop 8 and DOMA both, because there's no rational basis for discriminating against gays and lesbians, and because marriage is a fundamental right.
I think this because public opinion has changed dramatically in the past 15 years, and the Court tends to fall in step with public opinion on civil rights issues.
I also think this is a good thing for the Republican party. Young people are pretty emphatically anti- anti-gay, and a court ruling for marriage equality essentially takes it off the table as an issue. Hard-core legal conservatives can just call it a case of judicial activism without dealing with the underlying question.