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CNBC actually posted this????? Holy smokes.

Posted by on Jan. 20, 2018 at 12:59 AM
  • 30 Replies
2 moms liked this

The Dow's 31% gain during Trump's first year is the best since FDR

  • The 30-stock index has surged more than 31 percent since Trump's inauguration.
  • That marks the index's best performance during the first year of a president since Franklin Roosevelt.
  • "You've got lower taxes, less regulation and confidence in the economy is high," said one investor.
  • The S&P 500 has surged 23 percent during Trump's first year in office.

Donald Trump lifted the Dow Jones industrial average in his first year in office more than any other president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The Dow has surged more than 31 percent since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017. That marks the index's best performance during a president's first year since Roosevelt. The Dow skyrocketed 96.5 percent during Roosevelt's first year in office.

President Donald Trump speaks prior to signing a Presidential Proclamation shrinking Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments at the Utah State Capitol in Salt Lake City, Utah, December 4, 2017.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump speaks prior to signing a Presidential Proclamation shrinking Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments at the Utah State Capitol in Salt Lake City, Utah, December 4, 2017.

Donald Trump lifted the Dow Jones industrial average in his first year in office more than any other president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The Dow has surged more than 31 percent since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017. That marks the index's best performance during a president's first year since Roosevelt. The Dow skyrocketed 96.5 percent during Roosevelt's first year in office.

(Returns measured from the day before the inauguration.)

"This is all about policy," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird. "You've got lower taxes, less regulation and confidence in the economy is high. Things are firing on all cylinders."

Trump quickly moved to cut regulations enacted by previous administrations. He also successfully pushed to overhaul the U.S. tax code. That revamp included slashing the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

The president made it to the White House saying he would "put America first." Since taking office, Trump has pushed to have companies bring back jobs to the U.S. and has said repeatedly said his policies would help to accomplish this.

These policy and rhetoric shifts have helped the so-called old guard of the stock market rally.

Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar — both founded in the early 1900s — are up 115 percent and 82 percent, respectively, since Trump entered the White House. They are also the best-performing Dow stocks since Trump took office. These companies benefit greatly from lower taxes and less regulation, and tend to rise the most when people believe the economic cycle is accelerating.

Some investors believe Trump is getting too much credit for the run-up and it's really the strength of the global economy boosting these industrial stocks.

"There is clearly a coincidence between Trump's election and the run-up in stock prices over the past year," Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said in a note earlier this week. "However, coinciding with Trump's victory was mounting evidence of a global synchronized boom. In our opinion, the run-up in stock prices over the past year has been a continuation of the bull market within a bull market that started on February 12, 2016."

Trump doesn't see it that way, often patting himself on the back about the Dow's successes during his first year in office. He's tweeted about the index at least a dozen times in the last year. The president also mentioned the Dow repeatedly in meetings and news conferences. Most recently, Trump took credit for the index breaking above 25,000 for the first time. He also told reporters: "I guess our new number is 30,000."

He talks less about the S&P 500, perhaps because its name recognition isn't as strong as the Dow's, but also because it's gains are slightly less impressive.

The broader S&P 500 jumped 23 percent during Trump's first year in office. But the index did better during the first year of three other presidents: Roosevelt, Barack Obama and Harry Truman.

The S&P 500 rose 96 percent in Roosevelt's first year. It gained 33.5 percent when Truman took office and 34 percent after Obama was sworn in.

Obama took office in January 2009, less than two months before the market started to recover from the financial crisis.


by on Jan. 20, 2018 at 12:59 AM
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Replies (1-10):
Harlot
by "Alt" on Jan. 20, 2018 at 1:07 AM
1 mom liked this

Things like is make me nervous. The stock market itself makes me nervous. It all depends on the whims of the people. I typically invest in less risky ventures.

fiddlerbird555
by Member on Jan. 20, 2018 at 1:17 AM
It's unclear whether Trump at this point is coasting on Obama's economic policies, or if anything he may have done is only a short temper gain at the expense of true growth.

Quoting Harlot:

Things like is make me nervous. The stock market itself makes me nervous. It all depends on the whims of the people. I typically invest in less risky ventures.

Harlot
by "Alt" on Jan. 20, 2018 at 1:27 AM

I'll never claim to be an expert in finance...I have someone for that. But one thing I do know is that the market is fickle af. Any little thing can dramatically change it. So, I'll just hesitantly trust what you said 😉

Quoting fiddlerbird555: It's unclear whether Trump at this point is coasting on Obama's economic policies, or if anything he may have done is only a short temper gain at the expense of true growth.
Quoting Harlot:

Things like is make me nervous. The stock market itself makes me nervous. It all depends on the whims of the people. I typically invest in less risky ventures.


TellMeBoutIt
by Member on Jan. 20, 2018 at 1:36 AM
2 moms liked this
Things fluctuate due to certain announcements, but the growth has NOTHING to do with him. The impending crash will be all his.
ILive4This
by Robin on Jan. 20, 2018 at 2:58 AM

An excerpt from Bloomberg:

"Presidents have far less control over the markets than most people would have you believe. There are no magical levers they can pull to force stocks to rise or fall. Policy decisions often affect the economy with a lag. And the economy and stock market are rarely operating in lock-step.

In addition, it really depends on where we are in the cycle when presidents come into office. The metrics are almost always different, depending on the starting date in office, for interest rates, market valuations, inflation, unemployment, demographics, economic growth and the length of the current expansion or contraction in the economy. Also, the president has no control over monetary policy. The Federal Reserve likely has more to do with economic success or failure than the president.

The majority of the historic economic and stock market records for presidents has more to do with the luck of the draw than anything else. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both took over at opportune times. George W. Bush and Franklin D. Roosevelt weren’t so lucky.

Yes, presidents probably have the ability to make things marginally better or worse when it comes to the markets. After all, sentiment plays a huge role with investor preferences, so it’s possible a president can awaken animal spirits to get people excited about prospects for the future. Yet the highest office in the land tends to get far too much credit when things go right and too much blame when things go wrong."

-Celestial-
by Pepperlynn on Jan. 20, 2018 at 4:55 AM
What has he actually done though..
Sparkles4Lui
by Platinum Member on Jan. 20, 2018 at 5:01 AM
Comparing him to FDR...

I think I need coffee.
SuG4
by Firestarter on Jan. 20, 2018 at 5:16 AM
1 mom liked this
They weren’t. They were saying in actually is that he is president during the highest rise in the stock market SINCE FDR. And seriously, most economists know that this rise that we have now is a natural progression from a bad recession. The same for FDR AFTER the Depression!! So there’s always natural reversal after a deep low!

WW2 helped the stock market rise during the Roosevelt years. But he was president DURING the depression as well.


That’s probably why Trump needs a war!

Quoting Sparkles4Lui: Comparing him to FDR...



I think I need coffee.
fiddlerbird555
by Member on Jan. 20, 2018 at 7:58 PM
All I'm saying is that I am not inclined to take this as evidence of how wonderful Trump is for the economy. I don't know that he has done much, and it is certainly too soon to tell If the good signs mean a sustainable improvement.

Quoting Harlot:

I'll never claim to be an expert in finance...I have someone for that. But one thing I do know is that the market is fickle af. Any little thing can dramatically change it. So, I'll just hesitantly trust what you said 😉

Quoting fiddlerbird555: It's unclear whether Trump at this point is coasting on Obama's economic policies, or if anything he may have done is only a short temper gain at the expense of true growth.

Quoting Harlot:

Things like is make me nervous. The stock market itself makes me nervous. It all depends on the whims of the people. I typically invest in less risky ventures.

anxiousschk
by anxiouss on Jan. 20, 2018 at 8:14 PM

No, it won't.  

The impending "crash"/recession has been on the horizon since Obama was in office, those in financial markets and circles have seen it coming for years.  Why? Because financial markets operate on boom and bust cycles.  It's just a thing that happens.  

Can his actions make it worse or better? Absolutely.  

But "all his" no.  

Btw, it's worthy to note that I am *not* a Trump fan and I *am* an Obama fan.  

Quoting TellMeBoutIt: Things fluctuate due to certain announcements, but the growth has NOTHING to do with him. The impending crash will be all his.


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